Wars and Rumors | Nuclear Proliferation

When the Soviet Union broke up, the Ukraine was one of the most powerful nuclear countries in the world. The year was 1989 and the Ukraine had just inherited one out of every three nuclear weapons in the Soviet arsenal. In 1994 Russia, Great Britain and the United States coerced the Ukraine into giving up its nukes for reassurances (The Budapest Memorandum) that none of these countries would ever violate the territorial integrity of the Ukraine.

It's a few months shy of twenty years later and Russia has clearly violated the Budapest Memorandum by invading Crimea and the Ukraine. Great Britain and the U. S. have done nothing.The Ukrainians believes that if they still had their nukes then they would still have Crimea. Russia has implied that they will use their nukes if anybody tries anything. First the Russian Foreign Minister said that they have the "doctrine of national security" which basically says that if anyone attacks Russian territory they will use nuclear weapons. Then President Putin said “Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers”.

Other countries don't mess with countries that have nuclear weapons, and that is why so many countries want them.  Ukraine is speaking openly about restarting their nuclear program.

Pakistan and India have been nuclear rivals for a number of years. Pakistan is now upgrading their nuclear arsenal by developing short range and sea-based nuclear weapons. This is particularly concerning because of the instability of the Pakistani government and the number of militant Islamists that call the country home.

Israel has its nuclear weapons program and they are now saying that Iran is testing nuclear weapon triggers at its Parchin nuclear facility. Iran of course denies that they are developing nuclear weapons. Most reasonable people thing they are lying.

Eastern Europe is watching the events in Ukraine very nervously. They remember when the Soviet tanks rolled in and they are wondering who is next. The well known Polish anti-communist organizer, Lech Walesa has said that it would not be a bad idea for Poland to get its hands on some nukes just in case.  Poland is a NATO member.

Turkey is hosting NATO weapons on its territory. But there are reports that they are developing their own nukes. Turkey has vigorously denied the reports.

Driven in part by the events in the Ukraine, the United States is looking to spend about a trillion dollars to upgrade their nuclear capabilities. President Obama's leftist colleagues feel betrayed. The New York Times editorial board, normally a reliable Obama lapdog, was actually critical of the president. They used words like 'backsliding', 'shortsighted' and 'disappointing'.  

Russia was recently accused by the United States of violating the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by building a cruise missile which is forbidden under the treaty.  Russia is not talking about the accusation.  

If the United States is upgrading their nukes, then so is Russia.  They recently tested a new submarine launched intercontinental ballistic missile. During the test President Putin announced the new weapons program.  There are few details about the program except that it will start in 2016 and run until 2025.

Just when you think the world can't get any more dangerous, it does.

It's Time to Stop Putin's Nuclear Arms Buildup

Once again, Russian President Vladimir Putin is flexing his muscles with no serious response from President Obama. Not only did Russia violate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, it did so while negotiating with the Obama administration over New START, a 2010 arms reduction treaty. The White House was at best naïve to Russian duplicity; at worst it was complicit.

In October 2007, the Guardian reported that Putin was considering withdrawal from the INF Treaty. "It will be difficult for us to keep within the framework of the treaty in a situation where other countries develop such weapons systems, and among those are countries in our near vicinity," Putin said, perhaps in a veiled reference to Pakistan and China's midrange nuclear weapons technology.

Apparently complying with the treaty was just too difficult for the Russian president. According to a State Department report released in July, Russia tested a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) in violation of the INF Treaty. It's likely that Putin was aware of this new missile in 2007 and, according to press reports, the U.S. government suspected a potential violation shortly thereafter.

According to State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, the administration will "work to resolve the compliance issues...through bilateral and multilateral means," even though, also according to Psaki, "we have attempted to address [this very serious matter] with Russia for some time now."

The administration negotiated a new arms control treaty with the Russians before resolving the potential INF treaty violation. It is not clear why. Beyond that problem, cajoling the Russians to return to compliance with the INF treaty, even if possible, fails to get at the most important question: Why was Russia developing an INF treaty-prohibited nuclear weapon at the same time it was negotiating a new strategic nuclear arms treaty with the United States in 2009 and 2010? What did the Kremlin hope to gain militarily or strategically? We need to answer these questions to determine how to respond.

Militarily, a new mobile GLCM with a range between 500 and 5,000 kilometers, which is what the Russians reportedly tested, enables Russia to threaten U.S. allies in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. It also puts important targets in China, India, Pakistan, and other countries within range of Moscow's nuclear force.  

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