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| Putin celebrates Victory Day in the Crimea |
Everything seems to be going Russia's way these days. This time last year their friends in the middle east; Syria and Iran, seemed to be on the verge of collapse. Syria was in the middle of a civil war and the rebels were winning. Iran was under intense pressure from economic sanctions and a secret war of covert operations against its nuclear program. This along with civil unrest seemed to be making Iran a candidate for collapse.
But things have certainly changed now. Iran is in negotiations with the western powers to have its sanctions lifted. Things in Syria have turned around and the Assad regime has been gaining ground lately. The rebel abandonment of Homs has Assad and his Iranian ally declaring victory over the rebels. The Crimean peninsula declared itself separate from the Ukraine and invited the Russians to come in. The Russians quickly displaced the Ukrainian military and are now in control of this very strategic peninsula. They are acting quickly to move their Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol. From there they can more easily project power in the eastern Mediterranean. From the Mediterranean, they can go through the Suez canal and into the Indian ocean with access to the Arabian Penisula and the Persian Gulf. Egypt controls the Suez canal. It is not an accident that Egypt was recently able to purchase 1 mBTU of Russian natural gas at a very favorable price.
Crimea Takeover Seen as Potential Game Changer in Mediterranean
When President Vladimir Putin paid a
visit to Crimea during last week's Victory Day celebrations, he
described March's annexation of the peninsula as an act of restoring
"historical justness," and military analysts say Russia's
famed Black Sea Fleet may play a crucial role in doing just that.
Apart from symbolic and historical
significance, Russian sovereignty over Crimea may offer it new
strategic opportunities and allow it to project its influence to the
Mediterranean and further to the Middle East, as well as to the
Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal, analysts said Tuesday.
To mark the 231st anniversary of the
Black Sea Fleet on Tuesday, sailors, admirals and residents of
Sevastopol laid flowers at the monument to Empress Catherine, during
whose reign Crimea was absorbed by Russia before the fleet's founding
in 1783. Sevastopol is usually portrayed as a prime example of
Russia's military glory — a fact which Putin has made clear he
hopes to reinvigorate going forward.
"In the near future, we are
waiting in Sevastopol for six new Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates
that are currently being built for us in Kaliningrad, six new
submarines and also a Mistral assault ship from France,"
Alexander Vitko, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, said during the
celebration.
Headquartered in Russia's famous naval
base, Sevastopol, the Black Sea Fleet can get to the Mediterranean
within one day of sailing, as opposed to the weeks it would take from
the Northern Fleet's bases on the Kola. This ease of access allows
Russia to exert influence over the Balkans, the eastern Mediterranean
and the Middle East.
"The ships can get to the Bosporus
overnight, then in a day they can pass the Turkish straits and appear
in the eastern Mediterranean; two more days and the ships are near
Cyprus, and in twelve more hours they are already approaching the
Suez channel," Sergei Gorbachev, a long-time naval historian,
said with clear admiration.
"If we had a modern fleet in
place, there would have been no bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 and
Libya in 2011. The U.S. would have been more wary about going to
Iraq," Gorbachev said by phone from Sevastopol.
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