AND WHAT I SAY UNTO YOU I SAY UNTO ALL, WATCH. - MARK 13:37

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Just When You Thought Syria Couldn't Get Worse

An extraordinary event has been taking place recently. In the past five days more than 30,000 refugees have fled Syria for Iraqi Kurdistan.

By most estimates, there are more than 17,000 foreign fighters taking part in the Syrian civil war. They have come here from all over the Middle East. Many are from Libya, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. Of the foreign fighters who are opposed to the Assad regime, most of them are Islamic jihadists and of these, many are affiliated with al-Qaida.

Jabhat al-Nusra is also known as the al-Nusra Front and is the largest jihadist group in Syria. It is linked to al-Qaida and is widely rumored to be supported by Turkey. Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is also known as al-Qaida in Iraq has its leadership from Iraq. It is well organized, well trained and has been successful recently with its campaigns in Iraq and Syria. It has a long term goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate centered in Syria.


In the past month, these jihadist groups, particularly the al-Nusra front, have been committing atrocities in the Kurdish area of Syria. The Kurds have become autonomous since the beginning of the Syrian civil war. There seems to be an agreement between Assad and the Kurds. He gave them their autonomy and in return they stay out of the fighting. But their neutrality seems to be coming to an end. The al-Qaida linked groups have begun a program of genocide against the Kurds. The leadership in Kurdish Iraq has offered refuge to the Syrian Kurds. This is why more than 30,000 have left Syria in five days with a rate as high as 10,000 refugees per day. The Kurds have significant resources of men, weapons and money so this may be setting up a Kurdish – Arab war in Syria, as if the situation in Syria isn't complicated enough.  And there are many other complications.  If Jabhat al-Nusra is being aided by Turkey, this would greatly complicate the delicate relationship between Turkey and its own Kurdish community.  The Kurds in Iraq are lately becoming much more autonomous contrary to the wishes of the Iraqi government. However, the Iraqi government may allow the Kurds to go their own way for help with al-Quaida in Iraq.

The news article below explains the situation very well.

Syria’s Civil War Comes to the Kurds

Events on the ground in northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan suggest that the Syrian conflict is about to become a lot more complex, as it seems a new combatant might be entering the fray: the Kurds.

Local authorities in Iraqi Kurdistan received a shock earlier this week when the normal flow of refugees from northern Syria suddenly spiked to 10,000 people crossing in a single day. Words like “unprecedented” are now being used to describe this surge of mostly Kurdish people escaping from Syria, and NGO and local government workers in Iraqi Kurdistan are struggling to cope with the numbers. Yet even more remarkable than the scale of this refugee influx is the fact that no one seems to know for sure what is behind it.

Recent events in northeastern Syria do allow for an educated guess though. There have been several reports of Islamist attacks on Kurdish towns and militias in the area. During one such attack this week, 17 people were killed in the strategic border town of Ras al-Ain. Other reports, such as a Russia Today article from August 9, detail a more comprehensive terror campaign by Islamists in the Kurdish-majority areas of northeastern Syria, one where targeted rapes, kidnappings, and murders are becoming commonplace. The article provides an individual’s account of an attack on a Kurdish town by brigades from the Free Syria Army, the al-Nusra Front, and perhaps most interestingly – the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

An increase in attacks on local Kurdish populations explains the refugee inflows in Iraqi Kurdistan, but the motivation behind these Islamist attacks remains an open question.

One theory is that the Islamists are resentful of Syrian Kurds because they have largely remained on the sidelines of the fight against the al-Assad government. Adding to the credibility of this interpretation is the fact that the Syrian Kurds currently represent somewhat of an easy target, one that could potentially unite the disparate elements of the insurgency in the wake of a series of military defeats by the Syrian government.

Other theories involve the hand of outside powers such as Turkey. Ankara is believed to be actively supporting the al-Nusra Front, and the goal of preventing Kurdish independence on its borders has been a longstanding fixture of Turkish foreign policy. Thus, some argue that the Turkish government is encouraging the al-Nusra Front to destabilize the Kurdish-majority areas of northeastern Syria in exchange for its continued logistical and military support.

However much the Erdogan government would like to forestall Kurdish independence, it’s hard to imagine the alternative of an anarchic vacuum of Islamist militias on its border would be a palatable price to pay. Yet this is exactly what Saleh Muslim, leader of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and prominent figure within the Syrian Kurdish community, is alleging to be taking place.